Tuesday, February 24, 2009

What you got Ashley?

Baseball Prospectus' projected AL East standings for 2009

                        Div.     Wild    Total
AL East W L Title % Card % Postseason %

Red Sox 98.0 64.0 38.9 24.0 62.0
Yankees 95.9 66.1 32.1 24.5 56.5
Rays 91.3 70.7 20.3 21.1 41.4
Blue Jays 81.2 80.8 6.4 10.1 16.5
Orioles 73.9 88.1 2.3 4.5 6.8

Really interesting stuff. The Rays projected to regress a little, the Yankees projected to pick up about 6 wins after adding the best available pitcher and best available hitter through free agency this year...but the Sox still the strongest team on paper. The Sox have been projected to finish ahead of the Yanks before and have come up short, but I feel pretty good about their chances this year as long as they avoid any crushing injuries. But that's a really strong division. The really interesting part is that even the Orioles win the wild card in the simulation more often than any team in either of the other AL divisions. The O's actually have some strong young players. They're still not close to being a playoff team, but they're no longer a joke of a team.

6 comments:

  1. Yeah, it's early to tell, since prospects are still prospects, but I've been impressed with what the O's have done this offseason, not to mention the Bedard trade.

    I think Angelos is going through the same phase Steinbrenner went through in the mid 90s, realizing that it's best to let the GM make the baseball decisions.

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  3. maybe angelos is going through that transformation, but he certainly isn't following in steinbrenner's foot-steps. the yankees got good during steinbrenner's suspension from the game. luckily for him it carried over into his reinstatement. as soon as he came back he tried his absolute best to botch the winning formula by sticking his nose back in it and forcing the signings of many of the big, guys at the end of their prime, free agent signings.

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